Latest Financial Planning News

Deprecated: mysql_connect(): The mysql extension is deprecated and will be removed in the future: use mysqli or PDO instead in /home/sowacctw/public_html/articles/sow_server_v3.php on line 530
Hot Issues
Investment and economic outlook, March 2025
Advisers should be aware of signs of elder abuse in SMSF structures
SMSFs hold record levels of cash and property
Trustees warned on early access
The Largest Empires in the World's History
Building Australia's future and Budget Priorities
Winners and Losers - Federal Budget 2025-26
All the documents, fact sheets and downloads to do with this year’s 2025-26 Federal Budget
Four SMSF breaches high on the ATO’s radar
Home is where the super is for many Australians
Investment and economic outlook, February 2025
TBC increase not just about pensions
SAR non-lodgment continues to be a concern: ATO
Increase in prohibited loans a concern: ATO
Retiree confidence undermined
The Most Held Currencies in the World | 1850-2024
Up to 700k retirees could be paying more tax than they should: SMC
Calls for clarification on NALI/E rulings
Australia’s economic growth set to recover in 2025
Carer rights - interdependency relationships
Division 296 deliberately deceptive
Five financial steps for the new year
How to shift into pension mode
Best Selling BOOKS of all Time
Preparing your kids for financial success
Investment and economic outlook
It’s super hump month. Make the most of it
Know the difference between general and specific NALE
Super funds finish 2024 with double-digit returns
9 Ways You Can Invest Using SMSF
End-of-year break time for super check-up
Most Powerful Economies in Europe | 1960-2024
Articles archive
Quarter 4 October - December 2024
Quarter 3 July - September 2024
Quarter 2 April - June 2024
Quarter 1 January - March 2024
Quarter 4 October - December 2023
Quarter 3 July - September 2023
Quarter 2 April - June 2023
Quarter 1 January - March 2023
Quarter 4 October - December 2022
Quarter 3 July - September 2022
Quarter 2 April - June 2022
Quarter 1 January - March 2022
Quarter 4 October - December 2021
Quarter 3 July - September 2021
Quarter 2 April - June 2021
Quarter 1 January - March 2021
Quarter 4 October - December 2020
Quarter 3 July - September 2020
Quarter 2 April - June 2020
Quarter 1 January - March 2020
Quarter 4 October - December 2019
Quarter 3 July - September 2019
Quarter 2 April - June 2019
Quarter 1 January - March 2019
Quarter 4 October - December 2018
Quarter 3 July - September 2018
Quarter 2 April - June 2018
Quarter 1 January - March 2018
Quarter 4 October - December 2017
Quarter 3 July - September 2017
Quarter 2 April - June 2017
Quarter 1 January - March 2017
Quarter 4 October - December 2016
Quarter 3 July - September 2016
Quarter 2 April - June 2016
Quarter 1 January - March 2016
Quarter 4 October - December 2015
Quarter 3 July - September 2015
Quarter 2 April - June 2015
Quarter 1 January - March 2015
Quarter 4 October - December 2014
Quarter 3 July - September 2014
Quarter 2 April - June 2014
Quarter 1 January - March 2014
Quarter 4 October - December 2013
Quarter 3 July - September 2013
Quarter 2 April - June 2013
Quarter 1 January - March 2013
Quarter 4 October - December 2012
Quarter 3 July - September 2012
Quarter 2 April - June 2012
Quarter 1 January - March 2012
Quarter 4 October - December 2011
Quarter 3 July - September 2011
Quarter 2 April - June 2011
Quarter 1 January - March 2011
Quarter 4 October - December 2010
Quarter 3 July - September 2010
Quarter 2 April - June 2010
Quarter 1 January - March 2010
Quarter 4 October - December 2009
Quarter 3 July - September 2009
Quarter 2 April - June 2009
Quarter 1 January - March 2009
Quarter 4 October - December 2008
Quarter 3 July - September 2008
Quarter 2 April - June 2008
Quarter 1 January - March 2008
Quarter 4 October - December 2007
Quarter 3 July - September 2007
Quarter 2 April - June 2007
Quarter 1 January - March 2007
Quarter 4 October - December 2006
Quarter 3 July - September 2006
Quarter 2 April - June 2006
Quarter 1 January - March 2006
Quarter 4 October - December 2005
Quarter 3 of 2011
Articles
The Budgeting Tools /Calculators on our website have been upgraded.
Stosur plan an antidote for volatility
The best performing market over the past 10 years.
Why it takes courage to stand still
China buys US for a bargain
Market Updates - August / September 2011
Buckle up for a bumpy US recovery ride
SMSF Management
How the US debt downgrade impacts Australia
Mixing business and super
The tangled web of the Australian housing bubble
Market Updates - July / August 2011
Under your control
Improving your financial literacy is vital to your future ......
5 reasons you should care about Greece
The more things change ......  (the Carbon Tax)
Is the US already in a double dip recession?
Market Updates  -  June / July 2011

Deprecated: Function split() is deprecated in /home/sowacctw/public_html/articles/sow_server_v3.php on line 268
The more things change ......  (the Carbon Tax)

By Robin Bowerman
Smart Investing
15th July  2011
Principal & Head of Retail, Vanguard Investments Australia


Long-term plans at times come with short-term impacts.

Take a certain carbon tax proposal as an example.

It does not come into effect - all things politically going to plan - until next July. Its true measure of success will not be known until 2050 by which time Australia's carbon emissions are predicted to be reduced by 80 percent compared with the level calculated in 2000.

So we have to wait the best part of four decades to declare it a success (or otherwise) - that certainly satisfies the test for investing for the long-term.

But naturally amidst the claim and counter-claim of the political debate swirling around the federal government's carbon tax announcement investors are grappling with what it all means for businesses, household costs and investment portfolios.

Long-term structural economic reform of this type clearly can have significant impact so it is not surprising the focus is on identifying potential winners and losers.

The person many regard as the father of modern share investing - Benjamin Graham - once declared that in the short run the stockmarket is a voting machine, in the long-term it is a weighing machine.

Certainly there are a lot of short-term votes being cast at the moment as the government's complex tax and compensation measures are digested and analysed.

If the focus is on an individual company then the impact may be a little or a lot. But if we take a view of the Australian sharemarket as a whole then history suggests markets evolve and adapt and over time continue to grow.

When we look at the Australian market over the past decade the composition of the market as measured by the broad S&P/ASX300 index shows us how the nature and the drivers of our sharemarket has changed.

If we compare the main sectors that make up the index at the end of June 1999 the largest sector was financials (excluding property trusts) at 31.4 percent. Next was the materials sector (which includes mining companies) and third was the consumer discretionary sector that covers the major retailers.

Jump forward to end of June this year and while financials and materials are still the two biggest sectors in our market there have been some notable changes in the lower ranks. The consumer discretionary sector has dropped from 14.2 percent of the market to less than 4 percent; telecommunication services slipped from 10.2 percent of the index in 1999 to 3.4 percent this year.

The energy sector - which includes the major oil and gas companies - represented 2.7 percent of the index back in 1999. In June 2011 it is up to 7.4 percent. The health care sector has also seen strong growth.

So the sharemarket has evolved and adapted as the business and economic environment changed.

And when you look back over 30 years our markets and businesses have had to adapt to a lot of significant change: the floating of the Australian dollar, reductions in tariffs with strong impacts on our manufacturing sector, the introduction of a capital gains tax, a fringe benefits tax and a goods and services tax.

So the message is that markets adapt to the new reality and putting a price on carbon is unlikely to be an exception.

But for investors these periods of change do introduce arguably different levels of risk. At a specific security level the risk of a long-term re-rating - either positive or negative - is real enough. As always the odds of picking winners are stacked against you so diversification is possibly even more important in periods of significant structural change.

And of course times like this remind us of the other great risk that as investors we all bear - legislative risk. Public policy can - and almost certainly will - change with governments of different idealogies.

In that sense the more things change the more they stay the same.

 



18th-July-2011