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Investment and economic outlook, March 2025

latest forecasts for investment returns and region-by-region economic outlook

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The government of Germany, home to the euro area’s biggest economy, this month approved its largest fiscal spending increase in more than a generation. Headlined by a €500 billion infrastructure investment fund, the fiscal package could boost euro area economic growth and inflation and lead to a higher European Central Bank (ECB) policy interest rate.

Germany's fiscal plan could significantly affect euro area growth, inflation and monetary policy

 

Notes: The chart shows the modeled impact on euro area macroeconomic fundamentals under three German fiscal expansion scenarios, including the fiscal deficit widening by 1% of GDP, 2% of GDP, and 3% of GDP. GDP refers to the estimated cumulative impact on the level of euro area GDP by year-end 2025 and 2026. Headline consumer price index (CPI) refers to the average annual headline CPI rates. Policy rate refers to the ECB deposit facility rate by year-end.

Sources: Vanguard calculations, based on data from Bloomberg and Oxford Economics, as of 10 March, 2025.

In addition to Germany’s fiscal package, which includes an exemption from the nation’s rule against spending more than 1% of GDP on defense, increases in defense spending across Europe and the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine lead us to increase our forecasts for euro area economic growth, inflation, and the ECB policy rate.

Financing for the plan may significantly increase the supply of government-backed debt, as discussed in an analysis by Roger Hallam, Vanguard global head of rates, and Shaan Raithatha, Vanguard senior European economist. The plan unlocks “billions of euros in spending that could help kick-start Germany’s flagging economy, which has been contracting for more than two years,” the pair write.

 

Outlook for financial markets

We have forecasts for the performance of major asset classes, based on the 31 December, 2024, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model®. Equity returns reflect a range of 2 percentage points around the 50th percentile of the distribution of probable outcomes. Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.

 

Australian dollar investors

Australian equities: 4.5%–6.5% (21.8% median volatility)

Global equities ex-Australia (unhedged): 4.1%–6.1% (18.8%)

Australian aggregate bonds: 4.1%–5.1% (5.6%)

Global bonds ex-Australia (hedged): 4.4%–5.4% (5.0%)

Notes: These probabilistic return assumptions depend on current market conditions and, as such, may change over time.

Source: Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.

IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from the VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modelled asset class. Simulations are as of 31 December, 2024. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time.

 

Region-by-region outlook

The views below are those of the global economics and markets team of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group as of March 20, 2025.

 

Australia

Australia's economy has shown resilience, avoiding recession despite aggressive monetary tightening by the central bank.

We expect:

  • A gradual recovery in 2025, with full-year economic growth of about 2%, supported by rising real household incomes, a rebounding housing market, and rate-cut expectations.
  • A tight labor market, government energy and rent subsidies, and external uncertainties to preclude sharp disinflation this year. In January, headline inflation remained steady at 2.5% year over year. Trimmed mean inflation, which excludes extreme items, rose to 2.8% year over year.
  • The unemployment rate to rise to about 4.6% this year—it stood at 4.1% in February—as financial conditions tighten amid still-restrictive interest rates.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts due to sticky services inflation. We forecast the cash rate target will end 2025 at 3.5%.

 

United States

Uncertainty around tariffs, immigration, and other policy is likely to weigh on the economy in 2025. Real-time signals point to a material slowing of growth in the first quarter. In its March 18 GDP Now estimate, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta anticipated a first-quarter economic contraction.

Increased policy uncertainty has prompted us to downgrade our 2025 U.S. growth forecast and to raise our inflation forecast.

We now expect:

  • Full-year 2025 economic growth of 1.7%, down from 2.1%.
  • The core rate of inflation, which excludes food and energy prices due to their volatility, to register about 2.7% this year, up from our previous forecast of 2.5%, based on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index.
  • A considerably softer labour market report for March than we’ve become accustomed to. The report will reflect recently announced government layoffs, and we expect little employment growth in private-sector industries that are sensitive to government spending. Tariff uncertainty likely has curbed hiring in construction and manufacturing.
  • The Federal Reserve to cut its target for short-term interest rates twice in the second half of the year, to a range of 3.75%–4% at year-end. The current target is 4.25%–4.5%.

 

Canada

Trade and tariff uncertainties have prompted us to revise our forecasts for Canadian economic growth, unemployment, core inflation, and the policy rate set by the Bank of Canada.

We now expect:

  • Full-year 2025 economic growth of 1.3%, down from 1.8%.
  • The Bank of Canada to trim its policy interest rate by year-end to 2.25%. We previously forecast a terminal rate of 2.5%. The central bank’s target is currently 2.75%.
  • Full-year core inflation of 2.4%, up from 2.2%, reflecting our expectation for a relatively modest tariff regime.
  • The unemployment rate to rise from 6.6% to 7% by year-end due to trade-related uncertainty.

 

Euro area

A major infrastructure and defense program announced by Germany’s new government is set to increase the nation’s fiscal spending, leading us to upgrade our euro area growth and inflation forecasts and our European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate view.

We now expect:

  • Economic growth in 2025 of 1%, up from our previous forecast of 0.5%, and a 1.6% expansion in output next year, up from our previous forecast of 0.8%. Significant tariffs on U.S. imports of European Union goods for an extended period could largely offset the gains from expansionary fiscal policy in 2025 and 2026.
  • The headline and core rates of inflation to end 2025 below 2%, though we have lifted our estimate of core inflation for 2026 by 0.2 percentage point to 2.1%.
  • One final interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, which would bring its deposit facility rate to 2.25%. We previously forecast a terminal rate of 1.75%
  • The unemployment rate to rise only modestly, instead of the previously forecasted gradual rise to near 7% in 2025, from the current record low of 6.2%

 

United Kingdom

The economy of the United Kingdom recently has been characterised by sluggish growth and moderating but elevated price and wage pressures. On March 20, the central bank’s policymakers maintained their 4.5% target interest rate, noting a gradual approach to further monetary policy adjustments.

We expect:

  • Economic growth this year of 0.7%, down from our previous forecast of 1.4%, reflecting base effects from late 2024 and deteriorating forward-looking data.
  • The headline rate of inflation to rise toward 3.5% in the near term due to higher energy prices but to fall to about 2.5% by year-end. The core inflation rate is likely to fall to about 2.7% by year-end.
  • The unemployment rate to end the year around 4.7%, up from 4.4% for the November-through-January period, reflecting recent signs of labor market softening.
  • The Bank of England to reduce its policy interest rate from 4.5% to 3.75% by year-end.

 

Japan

Recent economic conditions in Japan have been marked by a strengthening wage-price spiral and a gradual recovery in private consumption, which is expected to continue in 2025.

We further expect:

  • Economic growth in 2025 of 1.2%, supported by upward momentum in wages. The impact of global economic uncertainty, such as potential U.S. tariff hikes, is expected to be limited, with positive spillover from policy stimulus in China.
  • Steady wage growth and structural labor shortages to keep the “core" rate of inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, robust at about 2% this year.
  • The country’s structural labor shortage, which has been partially alleviated by increased labor force participation from women, older people, and foreign workers, to continue exerting upward pressure on wages.
  • The Bank of Japan to gradually raise its current 0.5% policy rate to 1.0% by year-end.

 

China

China's economy has appeared robust in the first quarter of 2025, but underlying headwinds suggest slower growth for the rest of the year.

We expect:

  • Full-year economic growth of about 4.5%, a bit less than the growth target of “about 5%” set for the third consecutive year by the National People’s Congress. An April Politburo meeting will be a key indicator of whether policy shifts to boost consumption.
  • A core rate of inflation of about 1.5% in 2025. Supply-centric policies have reinforced a negative feedback loop between weak demand and low prices.
  • The unemployment rate—5.4% in January–February—to finish 2025 around 5%.
  • Monetary policy adjustments aimed at boosting growth—specifically, a 0.3 percentage point cut to the seven-day reverse repurchase rate and 0.5 percentage point of cuts to banks' reserve requirement ratios.

 

Emerging markets

Recent economic conditions in emerging markets have been mixed. Mexico's economy contracted by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and inflation remains a concern, while Brazil has seen a significant rise in inflation, leading the central bank to raise its policy interest rate to 14.25% to combat rising prices.

In Mexico, we expect:

  • That economic growth could slow below our 1.25%–1.75% baseline for 2025 if significant tariffs are implemented and sustained.
  • The core rate of inflation to fall to 3.25%–3.5% in 2025, above the midpoint of Banxico’s 2%–4% target range. It registered 3.65% year over year In February.
  • The easing cycle at the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to continue, with its policy rate ending 2025 in a range of 8%–8.25%. It is 9.5% today.

 

Notes: All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.

Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.

Investments in stocks and bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.

IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. VCMM results will vary with each use and over time.

The VCMM projections are based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Future returns may behave differently from the historical patterns captured in the VCMM. More important, the VCMM may be underestimating extreme negative scenarios unobserved in the historical period on which the model estimation is based.

The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® is a proprietary financial simulation tool developed and maintained by Vanguard’s primary investment research and advice teams. The model forecasts distributions of future returns for a wide array of broad asset classes. Those asset classes include U.S. and international equity markets, several maturities of the U.S. Treasury and corporate fixed income markets, international fixed income markets, U.S. money markets, commodities, and certain alternative investment strategies. The theoretical and empirical foundation for the Vanguard Capital Markets Model is that the returns of various asset classes reflect the compensation investors require for bearing different types of systematic risk (beta). At the core of the model are estimates of the dynamic statistical relationship between risk factors and asset returns, obtained from statistical analysis based on available monthly financial and economic data from as early as 1960. Using a system of estimated equations, the model then applies a Monte Carlo simulation method to project the estimated interrelationships among risk factors and asset classes as well as uncertainty and randomness over time. The model generates a large set of simulated outcomes for each asset class over several time horizons. Forecasts are obtained by computing measures of central tendency in these simulations. Results produced by the tool will vary with each use and over time.

This article contains certain 'forward looking' statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this article are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd (ABN 72 072 881 086 AFSL 227263) and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions.

 

 

 

 

By Vanguard
26 March
vanguard.com.au

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Anjan Das is a financial advisor with more than 33 years of service. He specializes in helping clients plan for the future and achieves their goals, whether it’s saving for retirement or buying a home.

CU Financial Planning is a boutique firm that offers financial planning assistance to clients all around Australia from its location in Sydney’s central business district. Anjan Das has over 33 years of experience in the financial services industry, including 17 years as a financial planner. He holds postgraduate degrees.

Mr. Das began his career in financial planning at a credit union, where he has since been offering full service to a chosen clientele. He is a member of the Financial Planning Association, a Certified Financial Planner, a Fellow of the FlNSlA, and a Senior Assessor / Marker for Post Graduate programs offered by FINSIA / KAPLAN Higher Education.

When his former employer, a Credit Union, decided to unload the Financial Planning business in November 2006, Mr. Das founded the Sydney CBD-based professional advice service CU Financial Planning in February 2009.
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Mr. Das has 36 years of experience in the financial services industry, 20 of those as a senior financial planner who offers thorough counsel. Mr. Das is a Post Graduate Financial Planner certified by FINSIA and a former Post Graduate assessor for students vying for Kaplan Professional Financial Planning certifications. Mr. Das has also been accepted as a Senior Fellow of FINSIA and has earned the Certified Financial Planner accreditation from FPA, Australia. Anjan specializes in helping clients with investments, SMSFs, personal risk insurance, and superannuation.

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Mortgage Broker / Financial Planner

John Menezes

John Menezes is a highly qualified and passionate financial professional with a diverse background and a deep commitment to helping Australians achieve financial freedom and wellbeing.

He is a Chartered Accountant from India and a CPA Australia member. John also holds multiple industry-recognized qualifications, including:

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With nearly 20 years of experience as a Financial Controller for multinational companies across India and Australia, John developed a strong foundation in corporate finance. However, his true passion lies in educating and empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures.

In 2013, John transitioned into Mortgage Broking, driven by a desire to help everyday Australians secure their dream homes and build investment property portfolios. Over time, he identified a critical gap in his clients’ financial journeys—many were burdened with large mortgages and young families, yet lacked adequate protection and long-term financial planning.

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Today, John provides a comprehensive, one-stop financial solution, combining mortgage broking, financial planning, and property services to support his clients at every stage of their financial journey.

Retirement Planning

At CU Financial Planning, Retirement Planning is about helping people achieve the life style goals and objectives that are important to them. Retirement means different things to different people. For some it is becoming a grey nomad and travelling Australia, for others it’s endless days sitting on the back porch. Maybe it’s the opportunity to reduce the golf handicap or perhaps try a whole new career as an unpaid volunteer.

Money in our view should not be an objective in itself, so our job is to help clients make wise choices with the wealth they have accumulated so they can maximise the life style afforded them by a lifetime’s hard work.

When making decisions as to the strategies and structures we recommend, the types of income streams appropriate, and the mix of investments, we are always mindful of what impact these decisions will have on our clients. As part of our retirement planning service, we focus heavily on clients achieving their lifestyle objectives rather than focusing solely on taxation savings or leaving a large legacy.

Topics we expect to discuss with you about your retirement include:

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Many of our clients also appreciate the interest we take in their estate planning. We provide estate planning advice and visit our clients’ legal advisors with them to ensure they and their families get the best outcome from this important area.

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Superannuation & SMSF's

Superannuation

Superannuation, including SMSF’s (self-managed superannuation funds) is a complex area and the rules are forever changing. Almost all Australian’s have a superannuation account due to legislative requirements however few understand all the opportunities that a well-managed superannuation account can bring.

For those approaching age 60, superannuation strategies can often save a savvy investor thousands of dollars of tax without impacting on their available cash flow. Even for those who are younger, strategies such as co-contributions, spouse contributions, personal deductible contributions and salary sacrifice to name but a few, can significantly improve one’s wealth if regularly taken advantage of.

At CU Financial Planning we have access to some of the lowest cost products available in the market and we are often able to save our clients significant amounts of fees.

Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSF’s)

Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSF’s) are growing in popularity and we regularly assist clients to decide if this is an appropriate investment vehicle for them. We can assist in setting up self-managed superannuation funds, investment advice and management and structuring the SMSF in either accumulation or pension phases.

We also have significant expertise in the structuring of personal insurance within superannuation accounts including self managed super funds. Protecting against things going wrong is an important aspect of a well made plan, and Life insurance, TPD, Trauma and Income Protection can help minimise this risk.

Caution should be taken with superannuation investing and more particularly with contributions as it easy to incur unnecessary tax and there are now many traps for the unwary. For more information about superannuation and the services that we provide, please contact us.

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Investment Advice

After helping our clients get the right strategies and structures in place we put significant emphasis on investment advice and ensuring the portfolio is tailored to the individuals needs.

We commence with a risk profile and that drives the broad asset allocation of the portfolio. We aim to produce a portfolio on the efficiency frontier maximising the possible return relative to the risks that is appropriate for our client to take. Preserving capital is always our priority. Considerations are the clients tolerance to risk, time frame and the willingness to accept volatility.

Through our investment process we consider our clients goals and aim to help them achieve their aspirations in the medium and long term. As part of our investment advice, we focus on minimising costs of investing, finding the best funds to achieve tax effective portfolios, minimise risk at a number of levels and continuously review the results.

We recognise we are in a world that is changing rapidly and a client’s portfolio like their lives never stand still. As a result, our investment advice is tailored to those who want a pro-active approach to managing their assets.

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We understand that high net worth families, businesses and individuals need advice that caters to their specific needs. We can help with speciailsed services in the following:

Structuring of entities (including companies, trusts, SMSFs)

We provide comprehensive financial advice for individuals, families, and their associated entities (companies, trusts and self-managed superannuation funds). Our team offers guidance on financial strategies that align with your overall family wealth management goals after considering taxation, risk management and intergenerational wealth transfer needs.

Wealth management and Investment services

Our core service is developing personalized investment strategies and managing diversified portfolios. We work closely with you to understand your financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizons to create and implement tailored family wealth management plans. We have competency in direct equities, exchange traded funds (ETFs), money market accounts, (separately) managed accounts (SMAs) and partner with some of the world’s leading managed fund offers domiciled in Australia, the US and Europe.

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We offer strategic financial advice that takes into account tax implications. We can help you understand how different investment decisions and financial strategies might impact your tax situation, and work alongside your tax professionals to implement tax-efficient financial plans. Our advice aims to optimise your financial position while ensuring you're well-prepared for your tax obligations.

Estate planning and intergenerational wealth transfer

Our comprehensive financial planning services include strategies for effective estate planning and smooth intergenerational wealth transfer. We help you develop a robust financial framework to support your legacy goals, ensuring your wealth continues to benefit future generations. Our team assists in creating financial strategies that align with your estate planning objectives, including analysing the long-term implications of different wealth transfer scenarios. We also provide guidance on structuring your investments and assets to facilitate efficient wealth transition, helping to preserve your family's financial legacy for years to come and ensure the wealth remains in the family.

Business Succession Planning

This protects and prepares shareholders, trustees and their families from unexpected events such as injury or death of their business partners. This includes advance planning for events that might cause the business to need winding up through to immediate issues upon retirement of a partner such as equity transfer and taxation management.

Specific areas we work on with our clients’ accountants and lawyers include:

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Lifestyle and concierge services

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