Saturday 9 Nov 2024
Latest Financial Planning News
Hot Issues
ATO reviewing all new SMSF registrations to stop illegal early access
Compliance documents crucial for SMSFs
Investment and economic outlook, October 2024
Leaving super to an estate makes more tax sense, says expert
Be clear on TBA pension impact
Caregiving can have a retirement sting
The biggest assets growth areas for SMSFs
20 Years of Silicon Valley Trends: 2004 - 2024 Insights
Investment and economic outlook, September 2024
Economic slowdown drives mixed reporting season
ATO stats show continued growth in SMSF sector
What are the government’s intentions with negative gearing?
A new day for Federal Reserve policy
Age pension fails to meet retirement needs
ASIC extends reportable situations relief and personal advice record-keeping requirements
The Leaders Who Refused to Step Down 1939 - 2024
ATO encourages trustees to use voluntary disclosure service
Beware of terminal illness payout time frame
Capital losses can help reduce NALI
Investment and economic outlook, August 2024
What the Reserve Bank’s rates stance means for property borrowers
How investing regularly can propel your returns
Super sector in ASIC’s sights
Most Popular Operating Systems 1999 - 2022
Treasurer unveils design details for payday super
Government releases details on luxury car tax changes
Our investment and economic outlook, July 2024
Striking a balance in the new financial year
The five reasons why the $A is likely to rise further - if recession is avoided
What super fund members should know when comparing returns
Insurance inside super has tax advantages
Are you receiving Personal Services Income?
It’s never too early to start talking about aged care with clients
Taxing unrealised gains in superannuation under Division 296
Capacity doubts now more common
Articles archive
Quarter 3 July - September 2024
Quarter 2 April - June 2024
Quarter 1 January - March 2024
Quarter 4 October - December 2023
Quarter 3 July - September 2023
Quarter 2 April - June 2023
Quarter 1 January - March 2023
Quarter 4 October - December 2022
Quarter 3 July - September 2022
Quarter 2 April - June 2022
Quarter 1 January - March 2022
Quarter 4 October - December 2021
Quarter 3 July - September 2021
Quarter 2 April - June 2021
Quarter 1 January - March 2021
Quarter 4 October - December 2020
Quarter 3 July - September 2020
Quarter 2 April - June 2020
Quarter 1 January - March 2020
Quarter 4 October - December 2019
Quarter 3 July - September 2019
Quarter 2 April - June 2019
Quarter 1 January - March 2019
Quarter 4 October - December 2018
Quarter 3 July - September 2018
Quarter 2 April - June 2018
Quarter 1 January - March 2018
Quarter 4 October - December 2017
Quarter 3 July - September 2017
Quarter 2 April - June 2017
Quarter 1 January - March 2017
Quarter 4 October - December 2016
Quarter 3 July - September 2016
Quarter 2 April - June 2016
Quarter 1 January - March 2016
Quarter 4 October - December 2015
Quarter 3 July - September 2015
Quarter 2 April - June 2015
Quarter 1 January - March 2015
Quarter 4 October - December 2014
Quarter 3 July - September 2014
Quarter 2 April - June 2014
Quarter 1 January - March 2014
Quarter 4 October - December 2013
Quarter 3 July - September 2013
Quarter 2 April - June 2013
Quarter 1 January - March 2013
Quarter 4 October - December 2012
Quarter 3 July - September 2012
Quarter 2 April - June 2012
Quarter 1 January - March 2012
Quarter 4 October - December 2011
Quarter 3 July - September 2011
Quarter 2 April - June 2011
Quarter 1 January - March 2011
Quarter 4 October - December 2010
Quarter 3 July - September 2010
Quarter 2 April - June 2010
Quarter 1 January - March 2010
Quarter 4 October - December 2009
Quarter 3 July - September 2009
Quarter 2 April - June 2009
Quarter 1 January - March 2009
Quarter 4 October - December 2008
Quarter 3 July - September 2008
Quarter 2 April - June 2008
Quarter 1 January - March 2008
Quarter 4 October - December 2007
Quarter 3 July - September 2007
Quarter 2 April - June 2007
Quarter 1 January - March 2007
Quarter 4 October - December 2006
Quarter 3 July - September 2006
Quarter 2 April - June 2006
Quarter 1 January - March 2006
Quarter 4 of 2011
Articles
Merry Christmas 2011
Few know exactly what their true financial position is, do you?
The art of balancing bad news
How economic reality influences the market.
Market and Economic Updates  -  November / December 2011
Want to do some of your own research – no problems?
Lump sum love affair
How much money do you need to comfortably retire?
You can afford to contribute more to super but .....
10 most indebted nations
Market and Economic Updates - October / November 2011
Timeless lessons meet new challenges
Securely transferring Your information to your Planner.
Gender Gap
The 5 types of earnings per share
No more Star Trek conventions for Spock
An introduction to behavioural finance.
Market Updates - September / October 2011
Timeless lessons meet new challenges
Valuable lessons can sometimes be lost in the swirling, short-term mists of time.

This week one of the world's original thinkers on investment markets, economist, academic and author, Dr Burton Malkiel has been in Australia reminding us of some of the timeless investment lessons he has learned over four decades of working and studying investment markets.

Dr Malkiel is a Professor of Economics at Princeton University in the US. He has served on many boards and investment committees during his career (including the Vanguard Group) and is perhaps best known as the author of the classic investment book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, now in its 10th edition having sold more than 1.5 million copies.

One of the many straightforward but powerful messages Dr Malkiel reminded us of this week was the value of dollar cost averaging.

Many people understand the concept of dollar cost averaging - investing the same amounts of money over regular time periods.

But what has perhaps been clouded by market moves over the years is that dollar cost averaging actually works better in volatile markets rather than those that climb more steadily.

As investors we probably prefer markets like those from 2003 to early 2008 when despite the odd bump along the way the overall direction was pointing up.

Since 2008 and the global financial crisis the new normal has been volatility - lots of it as we have seen in recent months.

Dr Malkiel uses the example of dollar cost averaging strategy where $1000 is invested over five time periods. The market price of the index fund used in Dr Malkiel's example begins at $100, falls to $75, falls further to $55 before bouncing back to $110 before settling back at $100. In other words the market over the five investment periods has ended precisely where it started - a scenario US share investors are well aware of in what is called the lost decade of 2000 to 2010 when the broad US sharemarket ended the decade about the same level it started.

The bad news about dollar cost averaging is that some times you will be buying into a market at high prices; the good news is you will also be buying in around low points.

In this case our investor at the end of the period by dollar cost averaging had a portfolio worth $6060.

By contrast if you had invested the same amount in a market that rose steadily from $100 in $10 increments to $140 - arguably an investor's dream market - you would have had a portfolio worth slightly less - $5915.

The alchemy of the arithmetic lies in the average cost of the shares or units purchased.

The average cost of the dollar cost averaged portfolio was $82.51 compared to $118.34 for the steadily rising market.

The message here is less about the end portfolio value and more about overcoming our behavioural biases. We feel good about investing when markets are trending up steadily. Markets that move more like a roller coaster unsettle us and create doubt about the wisdom of investing - or at least investing at a particular time.

The real value of dollar cost averaging is that the structure of a disciplined investment program like dollar cost averaging helps overcome that behavioural bias that wants to turn us into market timers.

By Robin Bowerman
Smart Investing
Principal & Head of Retail, Vanguard Investments Australia
21st October 2011

 



12th-November-2011

        
49 Brentford Square Forest Hill VIC 3131  Phone: (03) 9877 7117