Such an exercise should make investors optimistic from a long-term perspective while underlining the dangers of trying to time the market by attempting to pick the best time to sell or buy.
Research by AMP Capital Investors shows Australia has had nine bear markets since 1960 while the United States has had eight over the same period - excluding the prevailing bear market.
This research found that these bear markets, both in Australia and the United States, have lasted for an average of 15 months. And average fall from the markets' high point to their low point was 34% in Australia and 32% in the United States.
Both markets recovered strongly from their past bear markets with the average rebound in the first 12 months from the market low being 32% in Australia and 33% in the United States.
In summary, the recovery pattern from past bear markets shows that the rebound from a bear market has historically been extremely powerful both in Australia and the United States.
And an investor who contemplates cashing out their shares with the aim of buying back just before the market bounces - a classic market-timing manoeuvre - faces the high risk of selling their shares at a low and then missing the big bounce. By Robin Bowerman Smart Investing xxxxrd July 2008 Principal & Head of Retail, Vanguard Investments Australia
20th-August-2008 |