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Articles
When sharemarkets and the real world collide.
What crisis? Export boom on the radar
Investment Property Deductions Disallowed
Grey power on the march for pension reform
Investment Markets Data - To 31st August 2008.
Allocated Pensions and the new tax-free rules
Super realism with projected end-benefits
Looking Back

Investment Markets Data – To 31st July 2008

Dirty Tricks(ters) - Be wary at all times
Investment Property Deductions Disallowed
Part 2 - Top 5 financials to know about a company
Shabby Treatment
Investment Markets Data - To 30th June 2008
Looking Back
When sharemarkets experience a bear market, it is a valuable exercise to look back at how markets have recovered from past bear markets.


Such an exercise should make investors optimistic from a long-term perspective while underlining the dangers of trying to time the market by attempting to pick the best time to sell or buy.

Research by AMP Capital Investors shows Australia has had nine bear markets since 1960 while the United States has had eight over the same period - excluding the prevailing bear market.

This research found that these bear markets, both in Australia and the United States, have lasted for an average of 15 months. And average fall from the markets' high point to their low point was 34% in Australia and 32% in the United States.

Both markets recovered strongly from their past bear markets with the average rebound in the first 12 months from the market low being 32% in Australia and 33% in the United States.

In summary, the recovery pattern from past bear markets shows that the rebound from a bear market has historically been extremely powerful both in Australia and the United States.

And an investor who contemplates cashing out their shares with the aim of buying back just before the market bounces - a classic market-timing manoeuvre - faces the high risk of selling their shares at a low and then missing the big bounce.  

By Robin Bowerman
Smart Investing
xxxxrd  July  2008
Principal & Head of Retail, Vanguard Investments Australia

 

 

 


20th-August-2008

        
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