BABY boomers whose retirement savings were battered by last year's investment markets crash should not expect to recover all their lost wealth for at least a few years. Since 1900 it has taken an average 42 months -- or 3 1/2 years -- for the share market to rebound from a bear market to its previous high, an analysis by AMP Capital Investors has found.The longest climb took 94 months, almost eight years, following the 1970-71 bear market. The only bright news is that shares have gained an average 28 per cent in the 12 months following the market's bottom. Baby boomers, people born between 1946 and the mid-1960s, have been among the hardest hit by plunging superannuation and investment values. They often have the most to lose as their nest eggs are larger and many have little time to recover any losses before they retire.Shares and listed property comprise up to 60 per cent of balanced portfolios, so all eyes are on the share market bear market. Wealth for Life principal Rex Whitford said while the average bear market lasted about 15 months, the current downturn was far from average."It took seven years for investors to get back to neutral after 1987. After the crash of 1929, it took World War II to get things going again," he said."Not being patient can be expensive. We only need to look at the size of each recovery once it started."When it does recover no one knows when or how powerful it will be. But what we do know is the biggest returns come in the early stages of a recovery."The current market low was last November, after a fall of 53 per cent, although many analysts believe a new low may hit in the coming weeks.PKF's manager financial services, Tanya Bradley, said it could be five years before the market returned to its previous highs of 2007 "and that may even be optimistic"."We don't know when it will turn around, however now is definitely a good value time to buy," she said.Bernie Lewis Wealth Management director Scott Kirkwood said in the calendar years following downturns since 1987, shares had climbed between 15.9 per cent and 45.4 per cent."I still believe that the next six to 12 months will remain volatile, but as both the monetary and fiscal policies of governments around the world start to take hold we will see a steady increase in market values," he said.Impact Financial Coaching director Allan Ward said retirement was not the final goal." A male who retires today age 60 could expect to live 21 years, based on average life expectancies, so they need to allocate their investments in accordance with their goals for the rest of their lives."
5th-February-2009 |